Retirees: Earn lower returns. Have more money.
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June 28, 2003

In an article called “Retirement: When Your Portfolio Starts Paying You”, we told retirees that less can be more. If you withdraw less from your portfolio in the early years of retirement, you can take out more later. That might seem obvious.

But the less-is-more message this time isn’t so obvious: Retirees may wind up with more money by investing in assets that have lower long-term returns.

This article isn’t a pitch for investing in bonds, though they are an essential part of most retirement portfolios. No, this is a pitch for investments of any type that have lower risks.

I’m not advocating low-risk investing for psychological reasons, though I often do. Right now, I’m advocating it for purely mathematical reasons.

I’m going to show you real-life examples of something many retirees don’t understand: There’s a big difference between the best way to invest before retirement and the best way to invest after retirement.

In the broadest sense, investing can be broken down into two phases: accumulation and distribution. The accumulation stage usually comes before retirement, when an investor is adding assets, not withdrawing them. Growth is the objective; stability is comforting, but it doesn’t affect the math.

The distribution stage usually starts with retirement. That’s when stability starts to matter a great deal – more than most retirees realize.

When we work with clients, we often use a standard retirement portfolio scenario in which an investor retires with $1 million and takes out $60,000 the first year for living expenses, increasing the annual withdrawal by 3.5 percent every year to cover inflation.

Because the scheduled withdrawals go up relentlessly every year, they take an increasing bite out of the portfolio. Withstanding that ever-growing bite requires something new: stability, or the lack of volatility and negative returns. And that, in turn, requires a different kind of asset.

The most important thing we look at in this simulation is not the annualized return. It’s the value of the portfolio from year to year. This measures the most important thing retirees need to know about their finances every year: Are they in danger of running out of money?

Almost every seasoned investor knows, at least in a general way, about the “magic” of compound interest: its ability over many years to turn a small investment into a huge one. And the “magic” of dollar-cost-averaging is also well known.

Much less familiar is a mathematical quirk that should be understood by every retiree: the difference between performance during accumulation and performance during distribution.

When you’re accumulating money, what matters (at least mathematically) is how much you wind up with eventually. If you get to your goal, it doesn’t matter much how you got there. If your portfolio lost 45 percent the first year and then enjoyed an unending run of 14 percent annual gains (this is too good to be true in real life, but it makes the point well), you could be happy. In 16 years, you would nearly quadruple your money.

But here’s something that might surprise you : That very same hypothetical scenario – a serious loss followed by unending 14 percent gains, could spell disaster for a retiree. Those returns seem very favorable. But in a $1 million portfolio from which $60,000 is taken the first year and the withdrawal is raised by 3.5 percent every year, those returns would leave an investor broke after 16 years.

You’ll see this in Table 1, which shows year-by-year results of a portfolio that starts with $1 million and has only one bad year.

Though that example is pure fiction, the same thing happens in the real world.

Table 2 shows the year-by-year results of retiring as described above using real returns from two very different asset classes for 1973 through 1985.

We didn’t choose that period at random. We chose it because during that span of 13 years, the annualized returns of two quite different asset classes – the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Lehman Brothers Intermediate Government/Corporate Bond Index – were nearly identical.

From 1973 through 1985, the S&P 500 Index had an annualized return of 9.6 percent; the bond index’s annualized return was 9.5 percent.

Table 1
Hypothetical retirement scenario, $1 million portfolio
Withdrawal* Year Return Ending
Balance
$ 60,000 1 -45 $ 517,000
$ 62,100 2 14 $ 518,586
$ 64,274 3 14 $ 517,916
$ 66,523 4 14 $ 514,588
$ 68,851 5 14 $ 508,140
$ 71,261 6 14 $ 498,042
$ 73,755 7 14 $ 483,687
$ 76,337 8 14 $ 464,379
$ 79,009 9 14 $ 439,322
$ 81,774 10 14 $ 407,605
$ 84,636 11 14 $ 368,185
$ 87,598 12 14 $ 319,869
$ 90,664 13 14 $ 261,293
$ 93,837 14 14 $ 190,900
$ 97,122 15 14 $ 106,907
$ 100,521 16 14 $ 7,280
      *See text
For an investor in the accumulation stage, that means the S&P 500 had a (very) slight advantage over the bond index. Each would have turned an initial investment of $10,000 into nearly $33,000.

But for retirees, the stock portfolio was crippled – even though its long-term returns were almost exactly the same as those of the bond index. This is the whole point of Table 2.

Table 2
Bond returns vs. stock returns, 1973-1985
Withdrawal* Year S&P
500
Ending
Balance
Bonds* Ending
Balance
$60,000 1973 -14.7 $801,820 3.3 $ 971,020
$62,100 1974 -26.5 $543,694 5.9 $ 962,546
$64,274 1975 37.2 $657,765 9.5 $ 983,609
$66,523 1976 23.8 $731,958 12.3 $1,029,887
$68,851 1977 -7.2 $615,363 3.3 $ 992,750
$71,261 1978 6.6 $580,012 2.1 $ 940,840
$73,755 1979 18.4 $599,408 6.0 $ 919,110
$76,337 1980 32.4 $692,547 6.4 $ 896,711
$79,009 1981 -4.9 $583,475 10.5 $ 903,561
$81,774 1982 21.4 $609,065 26.1 $1,036,273
$84,636 1983 22.5 $642,425 8.6 $1,033,478
$87,598 1984 6.3 $589,781 14.4 $1,082,087
$90,664 1985 32.2 $659,833 18.1 $1,170,870
          *See text
We then used actual returns for these two indexes to continue this simulation another 18 years, through the end of 2002. Those 18 years included one of the greatest bull markets in the past century, a time when the S&P 500 Index was extremely productive.

Oops! Sorry folks. The S&P 500 Index portfolio went broke in 1996. From 1973 through 1996, the index had an annualized return of 12.3 percent. It had 11 calendar years with returns over 20 percent, six of them over 30 percent. Yet it simply couldn’t keep up.

You’ll see that progression in Table 3, which shows the bond index holding up much better, even though its compound return from 1973 through 1996 was only 9 percent.

Table 3
Bond returns vs. stock returns, 1973-1996
Withdrawal* Year S&P
500
Ending
Balance
Bonds* Ending
Balance
$ 60,000 1973 -14.7 $801,820 3.3 $ 971,020
$ 62,100 1974 -26.5 $543,694 5.9 $ 962,546
$ 64,274 1975 37.2 $657,765 9.5 $ 983,609
$ 66,523 1976 23.8 $731,958 12.3 $1,029,887
$ 68,851 1977 -7.2 $615,363 3.3 $ 992,750
$ 71,261 1978 6.6 $580,012 2.1 $ 940,840
$ 73,755 1979 18.4 $599,408 6.0 $ 919,110
$ 76,337 1980 32.4 $692,547 6.4 $ 896,711
$ 79,009 1981 -4.9 $583,475 10.5 $ 903,561
$ 81,774 1982 21.4 $609,065 26.1 $1,036,273
$ 84,636 1983 22.5 $642,425 8.6 $1,033,478
$ 87,598 1984 6.3 $589,781 14.4 $1,082,087
$ 90,664 1985 32.2 $659,833 18.1 $1,170,870
$ 93,837 1986 18.5 $670,705 13.1 $1,218,124
$ 97,122 1987 5.2 $603,409 3.7 $1,162,479
$100,521 1988 16.8 $587,374 6.7 $1,133,110
$104,039 1989 31.5 $635,585 12.7 $1,159,762
$107,681 1990 -3.2 $511,011 9.2 $1,148,873
$111,449 1991 30.5 $521,429 14.6 $1,188,888
$115,350 1992 7.7 $437,347 7.2 $1,150,833
$119,387 1993 10.0 $349,755 8.8 $1,122,212
$123,566 1994 1.3 $229,130 -2.2 $ 976,676
$127,891 1995 37.4 $139,102 15.3 $ 978,650
$132,367 1996 23.1 $ 8,291 4.1 $ 880,981
          *See text
What I want you to see is that in retirement, math rules. If withdrawals must eat into the portfolio every year, that portfolio has a relatively low tolerance for losses, especially in the early years. Investors can’t know ahead of time whether they are retiring at a very unlucky time such as 1973 or 2000.

But retirees can control the general tone of their assets. Simplistic projections that use constant returns, even conservative ones, don’t do justice to the damage that can be caused by losing years.

There is a moral here, and it’s this: In a retirement portfolio, it’s absolutely crucial to find the lowest-risk way to get your desired return. If you keep the risk low enough, you can survive quite nicely with a lower return.

This is why a retirement portfolio can almost always benefit from a healthy dose of low-paying bond funds.

Likewise, the equity part of a retirement portfolio can almost always benefit from a healthy dose of international stock funds to complement U.S. equity funds.
 
 
 

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Disclosure:
The graphs and tables in this issue were generated by Merriman Capital Management based on data from Dimensional Fund Advisors, Morningstar Inc. and the Wall Street Journal. We believe this underlying data is accurate but we cannot guarantee it.

Diversified U.S. equity portfolios are allocated as follows: 25 percent each in U.S. large-cap, U.S. large-cap value, U.S. small-cap and U.S. small-cap value funds. Diversified global equity portfolios are allocated as follows: 12.5 percent each in U.S. large-cap, U.S. large-cap value, U.S. small-cap and U.S. small-cap value funds and 10 percent each in international large-cap, international large-cap value, international small-cap, international small-cap value and emerging markets funds.

Diversified equity results and diversified balanced results reported in Table 4 are net of an assumed 1 percent annual management fee. Results reported in Figures 1 through 4 do not assume a management fee.

Future returns will be different from those reported or projected here.