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The provocative title of this article is designed to get your attention. The article itself is designed to open your eyes to the trash that’s routinely peddled by Wall Street and much of the financial media.
We define “investment pornography”
as misleading sales pitches meant to excite investors and goad them into
enriching other people, contrary to their own best interests.
If you believe many TV shows, financial publications and investment
newsletters, you think “the best investments” must change every time
there’s a new issue or a new show. Phooey!
Here’s the inside scoop: Much of what passes for financial
journalism is really just entertainment designed to sell advertising,
not make you money. Even worse, promotional material from investment
newsletters is designed to take your money directly. That literature
often claims outlandish, unbelievable returns. Much of it is just
fiction, protected by the First Amendment.
Except for dumb luck, there are no shortcuts to achieving wealth.
But hope is always in demand, and there will always be plenty of people
happy to sell it to you at whatever price they can get you to pay.
The best tool to protect yourself from investment pornography is
your wastebasket. The old advice to “investigate before you invest”
packs a lot of wisdom into just four words.
Your next best tool is a lot of skepticism about the enticing things you read.
“Eight stock market gems just begging to be snatched up by investors,” claimed a cover headline in
Kiplinger’s Personal Finance in February 2000. Eleven
months later, half of those stocks, all touted as being extremely
cheap, are much cheaper, including one that’s down 64 percent.
Here’s another example:
In its December 1999 issue,
Money Magazine
outlined “The Sensible Internet Portfolio,” a strategy “that tries
to dampen risk while positioning you to gain from the Web’s blazing
growth.” You can be the judge of that. Money’s recommendations, followed by their 2000
performance, were a single mutual fund and “five stocks to buy now:”
Munder NetNet Fund, down 54 percent; Safeguard Scientifics, down 87
percent; Exodus, down 55 percent; Inkomi, down 80 percent; VeriSign,
down 61 percent; EarthWeb, down 85 percent; and Ariba, down 39 percent.
(To its credit, Money recommended that this portfolio make up no
more than 4 percent of a portfolio, even for an aggressive investor.)
And still another example:
In cover headlines on its August 1998 issue,
Worth Magazine
promised “BEAT THE S&P With Our Five Top-Ranked Funds.” Most of
the magazine was devoted to forecasting how hundreds of mutual funds
would perform between then and the year 2001.
Now that year has arrived, and it’s time to see if
Worth’s top-ranked funds, one in each of five categories,
really beat the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and how they stacked up
against their peers.
In the performance calculations below, we used Morningstar data to
calculate the growth of $10,000 during the nine quarters starting
October 1, 1998 and ending December 31, 2000. In that period, $10,000
invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index grew to $13,363. We
compare each one with a low-cost Vanguard alternative.
Among small-company value funds Worth picked Eclipse Equity, now
named Eclipse Small Cap Value; $10,000 grew to $10,515 in Eclipse and
to $14,325 in Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund.
Among small-company growth funds, Worth picked Baron Asset; $10,000
grew to $14,780 in Baron Asset and to $13,992 in Vanguard Small-Cap
Index Fund.
Among large-company value funds, Worth picked Vanguard Windsor II;
$10,000 grew to $12,655 in Windsor II and to $14,038 in Vanguard Value
Index Fund.
Among large-company growth funds, Worth picked MFS Massachusetts
Investors Growth Stock; $10,000 grew to $18,680 in MFS Massachusetts
and to $12,490 in Vanguard Growth Index Fund.
Among global funds, Worth picked GAM International; $10,000 shrank
to $8,473 in GAM International and grew to $14,805 in Vanguard Global
Equity Fund.
The “promise” of this article was that these five funds would beat
the S&P 500 Index in the following nine quarters. Two did, but the
others underperformed.
Failing to recognize it was compounding the damage done by picking
five funds to beat the market, Worth went farther. The magazine
recommended portfolio weightings of 27 percent each in Vanguard Windsor
II and GAM International, 19 percent in Eclipse Small Cap Value, 16
percent in MFS Massachusetts Investors Growth Stock and 11 percent in
Baron Asset. The three biggest components of its suggested portfolio
were the very three that underperformed the market. Your $10,000
invested in Worth’s suggested portfolio on October 1, 1998 would have
grown to $12,317, compared with $13,363 if you had invested the
Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
It’s not hard to guess the criteria that led to
Worth’s picks: Each of these five funds had blistering
performance, averaging nearly 50 percent, in the 12 months immediately
preceding Worth’s preparation of the article. Each fund had smart
managers and a compelling rationale for why it would be a
market-beater.
In three of the five fund categories, the comparable Vanguard index
fund (Vanguard Global Equity Fund, Vanguard Value Index and Vanguard
Small Cap Value Index) beat both the S&P 500 Index and Worth’s
pick. This is further testimony to support something we’ve said many
times: Vanguard index funds can be an investor’s best friend.
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