Proper asset diversification makes more difference than anything else investors can do. But it's a daunting task when you're just starting out with little money. In this article Paul Merriman describes a step-by-step plan for doing it right. Editor's note: This article, first published in 2002, was
updated in January 2008.
We’ve
been preaching the merits of wide stock market diversification for many years,
and the advantages should be painfully obvious these days after the bear market
of 2000-2002.
Any investor who loaded up on growth stocks or technology funds in 1999 or 2000
has long since learned the advantage of owning some other kinds of assets as
well.
Proper diversification is not hard for investors who have enough money.
However, we have been asked time after time how a small or beginning investor
can achieve proper diversification with a relatively small amount of money.
It’s a good question, and there’s no perfect solution. But the benefits of
diversification are worth achieving – even if they are achieved imperfectly.
IMPERFECT DIVERSIFICATION IS BETTER
THAN NONE AT ALL
As our regular readers know, we believe strongly in diversifying well beyond
the popular U.S.
large-cap growth stocks that still dominate so many portfolios. We believe
investors who diversify heavily into small-cap stocks, value stocks and
international stocks will have better performance over the long run than those
who invest mainly in U.S.
large-cap growth stocks.
We recommend 10 equity asset classes: in the U.S., large growth companies, large
value companies, small growth companies, small value companies and real-estate
companies; internationally, large growth companies, large value companies,
small growth companies, small value companies and companies in emerging
markets.
The best way to get this diversification is through the institutional asset
class funds of Dimensional Fund Advisors. However, these funds are available
only through investment advisors.
For investors who don’t want to buy through an advisor, Vanguard’s low-cost
index funds do a very good job with nine of those asset classes (although
Vanguard’s international small-cap fund is closed to new investors). Our
Vanguard Suggested Portfolios are based on eight equity funds: 500 Index
(VFINX), Value Index (VIVAX), Small Cap Index (NAESX), Small Cap Value Index
(VISVX), REITS (VGSIX), Developed Markets Index (VDMIX), International Value
(VTRIX) and Emerging Markets Index (VEIEX).
However, buying all those funds requires more money than most beginning
investors have available. In regular accounts, Vanguard’s minimum initial
investment requirements mean it would take $24,000.
Still, there is no question in my mind that proper diversification away from
large-cap U.S.
stocks is worthwhile. Here are three things that we know from history:
• Small-cap stocks
have outperformed large-cap stocks. From 1927 through 2007, U.S. small-cap
stocks compounded at 12.2 percent. The S&P 500 Index over that time
compounded at 10.3 percent. A small difference, you think? Over 30 years,
$10,000 invested at 12.2 percent grows to $316,072; at 10.3 percent, it grows
to only $189,350.
• Value stocks
have outperformed growth stocks. From 1927 through 2007, U.S. large-cap
value stocks compounded at 11.3 percent. Large-cap growth stocks compounded at
9.7 percent. Over 30 years, that’s the difference (on a $10,000 investment)
between $248,230 (large value) and $148,088 (large growth).
• Small-cap value
stocks have been particularly productive. From 1927 through
2007, small-cap value stocks compounded at 14.1 percent. Compared with the
S&P 500 Index, that’s the difference over 30 years (on a $10,000
investment) between $523,081 and $189,350.
And while international stock markets don’t necessarily outperform the U.S. market, we
know that the risk of an equity portfolio is reduced by including
non-correlated assets. In the great majority of the last 38 calendar years, the
returns of international stocks have been significantly different from the
returns of U.S.
stocks.
In nine of those years, international stocks (measured by the Morgan Stanley
Europe Australia Far East Index known as EAFE) beat the Standard & Poor's
500 Index by 10 or more percentage points. Here are three examples:
• In 1977, the S&P 500 Index lost 7.2 percent; EAFE
gained 18.0 percent.
• In 1986, the S&P 500 Index rose 18.5 percent; EAFE was
up 69.4 percent.
• In 1993, the S&P 500 Index gained 9.6 percent; EAFE was
up 25.9 percent.
Even the smallest investors can gain from such diversification. But
unfortunately there is no single mutual fund that provides it.
So what is a beginning investor to do?
I’m about to give my best advice to an investor who’s just getting started. If you
are fortunate enough to have enough money so you can diversify properly without
this advice, I hope you’ll give this article to somebody who could use it.
Assuming that you’re working, your first investment dollars should go into your
401(k) (SEP IRA, Simple IRA, 403b, etc) account. Almost every 401(k) plan has
multiple options, and you can start getting some diversification even with your
very first $100. Even if all you can do is diversify into two equity funds and
a bond fund, imperfect diversification is better than none. (However, beware of
funds with different names yet similar portfolios. An “equity income” fund may
be extremely similar to a “growth and income” fund.)
Particularly if you receive matching contributions from your employer, fund the
401(k) fully and regularly. To the extent you can make automatic savings a
lifelong habit, you will not be sorry.
For guidance in maximizing your plan, I recommend you go to FundAdvice.com and
check out our article “Successful 401(k) Investing in 12 Easy Steps” as well as
our other 401(k) resources.
Unfortunately, relatively few 401(k) plans have good investment options that
fully and inexpensively cover small-cap, value and international stocks.
Therefore, you will probably need to rely on other investments to give you the
asset classes you can’t get in your 401(k).
You should think of all your long-term investments as making up a single
portfolio – and strive for having the right overall balance. For example, your
401(k) may contain an excellent U.S.
small-cap offering but not an international small-cap fund. In this case, use
your IRA or a taxable account to invest in an international small-cap fund.
Incidentally, if you and your spouse each have a 401(k) plan, you can treat the
two of them as one for allocation purposes. His may be strong in one asset
class, hers in another. As simple as this is, in all my years of working with
investors, I have met only one couple who studied their two plans and figured
out the best way to build them together using the strongest options in each
plan. If you can do that, I hope you will.
Aside from 401(k) accounts, the most common vehicle for retirement savings is
the IRA. Even though contributions are limited to $5,000 per year for most
people starting in 2008, an IRA gives investors almost unlimited flexibility in
choosing asset classes.
I’m often asked how I would obtain proper diversification in an IRA. I
recommend a 10-year program for diversifying gradually by adding money every
year, and I’m about to tell you exactly how to do it using low-cost Vanguard
no-load funds in eight cases and exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the other two.
But
first: Some young people may be able to make only a single one-time investment.
They don’t have the luxury of following the program I am about to outline for
diversifying gradually by adding money every year. For people who are in this
situation and who can accept the risks of being 100 percent in equities, I am
pleased to recommend a single fund: Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX).
This fund requires $3,000 for an initial investment and charges expenses of
0.64 percent. While that expense ratio is higher than I would like it to be, I
think it is a reasonable price to pay for owning a portfolio with about 60
percent of its assets in international companies. About 21 percent of the
fund’s portfolio is in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, according to Morningstar,
and the portfolio has an overall tilt toward value.
However, I don’t know of any fund that gives investors all the diversification
they need in a single package. If you want to make your money work hard
for you, there’s simply no great substitute for owning multiple funds.
I believe the majority of young people have the ability (and I believe they owe
it to themselves and their families) to make annual contributions toward
retirement. By definition, long-term investors have plenty of time to
achieve their goals. You don’t have to have an optimally diversified portfolio
on Day 1. I recommend a patient, methodical approach, starting with the asset
classes that have in the past been most likely to produce high long-term
returns. That means value stocks and small-cap stocks.
To keep expenses low and efficiency high, I suggest investing in a single asset
class each year.
In a Roth IRA with $5,000 annual contributions, here’s how I would do it, step
by step:
Year 1: Invest $5,000
in a U.S.
small-cap value fund. My choice is Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index. Result: Even
in this very first year, an investor has representation in both the value and
small-cap areas.
Year 2: Invest $5,000
in an international small-cap value fund. Since Vanguard doesn’t have such a
fund, I would use WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend (DLS). Result: By
the second year, the investor has representation in small, value and
international.
Year 3: Invest
$5,000 in a U.S.
large-cap value fund. My choice is Vanguard Value Index. Result: This adds
representation into the most popular part of the market, U.S. large-cap
stocks.
Year 4: Invest
$5,000 in an international large-cap value fund. My choice is Vanguard
International Value.
Year 5: Invest
$5,000 in an emerging markets fund. My choice is Vanguard Emerging Markets
Index fund. Result: The investor has now reached deeper in search of companies
that have lots of future potential.
Year 6: Invest
$5,000 in a U.S.
small-cap blend fund. My choice is Vanguard Small-Cap Index.
Year 7: Invest
$5,000 in an international small-cap fund. Vanguard’s International Explorer
(VINEX) is closed to new investors, so I would use an ETF, SPDR S&P
International Small Cap (GWX).
Year 8: Invest
$5,000 in a large-cap international fund. My choice is Vanguard Developed
Markets Index.
Year 9: Invest $5,000
in a U.S.
large-cap fund such as Vanguard 500 Index. Many people think of this as the
first fund to own, because it represents what so many investors think of as
“the market.” I’m listing it next to last because I expect large-cap U.S.
stocks, despite their popularity (and in part because that very popularity
makes it hard to ever buy them at bargain prices), to be among the least
productive of all these asset classes over the long haul.
Year 10: Invest
$5,000 in a U.S.
real-estate fund. My choice is Vanguard REITs (VGSIX).
For our suggestions of funds from families other than Vanguard, see the Merriman Model Portfolio at FundAdvice.com.
This
plan requires at least 10 full years to implement until full diversification is
achieved. During this build-up time, the portfolio won’t have an ideal balance
of assets. But to a young person, 10 years of imperfect balance is not likely
to be fatal. And at the end of this time, a fully diversified portfolio will be
the reward.
An investor who starts this plan on his 25th birthday will achieve full
diversification by his 34th birthday. With a projected retirement age of 60,
that leaves 26 years for the portfolio to grow with its proper balance. An
investor who’s now in his mid-20s has a high chance of living to age 80 or
beyond, giving this properly balanced portfolio the potential for half a
century to reward its owner.
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Editor’s
note: Historical returns of asset classes are based on Fama/French CRSP securities
data.
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