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John Bogle, founder
and retired chairman at Vanguard Group, has done a great deal for
individual investors over the past 30 years.
Back in the 1970s, Bogle pioneered index funds and no-load mutual
funds, and his actions put pressure on many other fund families to keep
costs low and offer no-load funds. I think it’s safe to say that
because of John Bogle, individual investors have kept billions of
dollars that would otherwise have been eaten away by the investment
industry.
Vanguard remains true to Bogle’s vision of keeping costs down and
shareholders in the driver’s seat. And you haven’t found Vanguard
implicated in any of the mutual fund scandals of the past six months.
Nevertheless, John does appear to have a blind spot – or at least
it’s fair to say he and I disagree on one very fundamental premise:
that wide diversification is in the best interests of investors.
I was asked about this in an email message from somebody who had
listened to a radio show interview I had with Bogle. In the
interview, I challenged Bogle on his tireless promotion of the Vanguard
Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) as essentially the only
investment vehicle investors need.
This listener wrote: “How can a person of John Bogle’s knowledge and
experience believe that the Total Market Index Fund has enough small
cap representation to give the average investor the correct equity
diversification?”
He pointed out that the Total Stock Market Fund is about 65 percent
invested in large-cap companies, 25 percent in mid-cap companies and 9
percent in small-cap companies. Actually, Morningstar breaks it down
this way: giant companies, 40 percent; large companies, 30 percent;
medium companies, 20 percent; small companies, 7 percent; and micro-cap
companies, 2 percent.
My own recommendation, based on market returns that go back nearly
80 years, is that investors split their U.S. equity investments
equally, having half in large-cap funds and half in micro-cap funds. By
that standard, John Bogle’s favorite fund has far too much large-cap
exposure and far too little small-cap exposure.
Thinking about the question that I received by email, I can say only
that while I admire Bogle immensely, his attitude seems to be that he
believes what he believes, and that is essentially the end of the
story.
When I interviewed John, we talked about value funds, which over the
years have generated returns of 2 to 5 percentage points per year
higher than the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Bogle said the Total Stock Market Index Fund “is half value and half growth. You own every value stock in America.”
But he then went on to argue against value investing, saying he
doesn’t think there are many “great value managers out there, and they
charge a lot of money” in fees. Even if value stocks were dominant in
the past, he said, their popularity has bid up their prices so much
that “They won’t be dominant in the future.”
Bogle apparently believes millions of other investors can’t be
wrong. He maintains most of his own money in index funds that mimic the
composite choices of all other investors.
Bogle doesn’t have much use for balancing large with small,
dismissing that approach as “other things” that some investors try in
order to get ahead. “Work your special strategies at the margin,” while
keeping 80 percent of your equity investments in the total market
index, he said.
When I cited statistics showing how small-cap stocks have
out-performed large-cap ones over long periods, Bogle dismissed this by
saying every comparison of past investment returns pertains only to the
specific period chosen for the study. That’s true, but it’s no reason
to ignore the facts.
I doubt that John and I are ever going to agree on this topic, and
that’s OK. But I think he is asking investors to leave money on the
table by not using a few of the Vanguard index funds he helped to
start.
For years my firm has recommended that the U.S. part of an equity
portfolio be divided equally into four asset classes: large-cap,
large-cap value, small-cap and small-cap value. Each of those is
represented very well by a Vanguard index fund. (These funds are Index
500 (VFINX), Value Index (VIVAX), Small-Cap Index (NAESX) and Small-Cap
Value Index (VISVX)).
It’s easy to compare this very simple four-fund strategy with the
total stock market fund. To do so, I looked back to the start of 1999
for a five-calendar-year period that includes a raging bull market,
then three years of the worst bear market in most people’s memory and
finally a strong recovery last year.
The table below shows year-by year comparisons of the returns of the
total stock market fund with the four-index-fund approach we recommend.
These returns go back to 1999, the first full calendar year in which
the Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund was operational.
The Total Stock Market Fund outperformed this four-fund combination
in only one of these years. A $100,000 investment in the Total Stock
Market Fund at the start of 1999 would have grown to $104,910 by March
31, 2004. The same investment in the four-fund combo, with annual
rebalancing, would have grown to $134,720.
The combination I advocate is not fancy or expensive. It is built on
four Vanguard index funds. Why John Bogle doesn’t like it remains a
mystery to me.
Even better for investors is a combination of four Dimensional Fund
Advisors institutional index funds that are available exclusively
through investment advisors. As I have noted in other articles, when
compared with Vanguard funds, DFA offerings are oriented more toward
smaller companies and skewed more towards value.
In theory, these smaller companies and more deeply discounted value
companies should provide a better premium return for the risk they
entail.
How did DFA funds do in practice? Here’s what the table looks like when DFA funds are added:
The bottom line: Every $100,000 invested in the Total Stock Market
Fund at the start of 1999 grew to $104,910 by March 31, 2004. In the
four Vanguard funds, $100,000 grew to $134,720; in the four DFA funds,
it grew to $169,252. (DFA results are before the effect of any
management fees charged by an investment advisor.)
These numbers are very impressive, but they have to be taken with a
grain of salt. The period under study was one in which small-cap stocks
and value stocks were in full bloom. The long-term record of these
asset classes is excellent, and we don’t expect that to change. But not
every five-year period will be like the one we just went through.
Investors should also expect periods in which growth stocks and
large-cap stocks have better performance. The longer the time period
that’s being measured, the more likely investors are to receive a
premium for owning small-cap and value stocks. For more on that, check
out an article written by my son, Jeff Merriman-Cohen. It’s called “The
Perfect Portfolio,” and you’ll find it on our Web site, www.fundadvice.com.
The real bottom line of this discussion is that unfortunately there’s
no way investors can rely on a single equity mutual fund to make their
money work as hard for them as it should. If Vanguard put the proper
proportions of its best index funds into a single package, I’d be that
fund’s loudest cheerleader.
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