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Everybody’s a genius in a bull market, the old saying goes. But a bear market creates fear, uncertainty and costly mistakes.
The conventional definition of a bear market is a decline in prices of 20 percent or more, lasting at least two months. Whether Wall Street is in a bear market right now depends on what is being measured. But there’s no question this market has unsettled many investors.
Here are 10 ways to avoid permanent losses and crash-proof your portfolio ...
You can experience two types of bear markets, temporary and permanent.
Markets tend to go up and down and then back up. In a temporary bear
market, you lose 20 percent or more but eventually recover. In a
permanent bear market, you lose 20 percent or more of your money and
you never get it back. All the historical evidence I’ve seen indicates
that a properly diversified portfolio has never suffered a permanent
bear market. Unfortunately, some common investor behaviors can easily
turn temporary losses into permanent ones.
1. Diversify among many stocks. If all your money is in Washington
Mutual (WM) shares, you’re hurting because of the sub-prime mortgage
mess. Microsoft (MSFT) shares are still worth less than half their
value at the start of 2000. If you own a diversified portfolio, you’re
unlikely to suffer that kind of pain. My advice: Own thousands of
stocks via mutual funds.
2. Diversify across many sectors. Financial services and homebuilders
are doing poorly now. Yet energy, natural resources and
export-intensive industries that benefit from a weak dollar are holding
up better. If you own the Standard & Poor’s 500, you’re invested in
energy, industrials, information technology, consumer products,
healthcare, telecommunications and much more.
3. Spread your portfolio among different asset classes. Be sure to look
beyond the S&P 500 to achieve this goal. Examples include value,
small-cap, large-cap and growth. Every asset class we recommend has a
long-term history of success. They have made money despite plenty of
temporary losses. Further reading: “The ultimate buy-and-hold strategy .”
4. Spread your investments geographically. I’m not talking about
country funds. The answer is not to put some of your money in Brazil, a
little in India and some more in Germany. The answer is to diversify
throughout the world. International index funds are the best way to do
this.
5. Even with all this diversification, you probably still need some
fixed income investments such as bond funds. Most investors should not
expose their entire portfolios to the stock market. Fixed income funds
can be a great stabilizer. Just how much fixed-income you need depends
on your circumstances, and figuring this out is worth spending some
time with a good financial advisor. Further reading: “Fine tuning your asset allocation .”
6. Consider using a mechanical defensive strategy to limit the size of
your losses. Active risk management isn’t for everyone, but it is
possible to follow systems that let you invest in an asset when its
price is rising and switch to cash when its price is falling, without
your having to make any forecasts. Every day that your money is in cash
is a day you’re not exposed to a possible bear market. Don’t do this
without a firm discipline. You’re asking for big trouble if you base
your moves on your emotions or your own judgments about the market.
Further reading: “The myths and realities of market timing .”
7. Avoid paying unnecessary expenses. It’s not hard for sales loads,
trading costs, management fees and operating expenses to total two
percentage points. If you don’t pay attention, you can lose a lot of
money and have no way to gain it back. In fact, you can lose more than
you invest in the first place. Here’s an example from our investment
workshop, “Live it Up Without Outliving Your Money:” If you’re 25 years
old and you invest $5,000 in equities every year, a return of 12
percent will make your account worth $3.8 million after 40 years. But
if you neglect the expenses you’re paying and your return is only 10
percent, you’ll have only $2.2 million after 40 years. You will have
given up $1.6 million, or eight times the total dollars you saved for
40 years.
8. Avoid paying unnecessary taxes. In an actively managed fund, the
fund manager decides when to sell and incur capital gains liability
that will impact your tax bill. Choose funds in which the management
pays attention to limiting your tax liability. Avoid funds that churn
their portfolios, buying shares for capital gains that can hurt you at
tax time.
9. Don’t panic. Selling an investment after it’s taken a big hit can
leave you with a permanent loss. If it rebounds, which it probably
will, you won’t be there to benefit.
10. Don’t think you can outwit the bear by avoiding all risk. One of
the worst “bears” in the forest is inflation, and it can be especially
painful for the most risk-averse investors. If you want to hang onto
cash in an environment of 3-percent inflation, you are almost certain
to lose purchasing power over the long run. Even staying exclusively in
Treasuries or other fixed income securities can’t overcome the
combination of taxes and inflation.
Crashes happen and so do those nasty bear markets. But every investor
can limit the damage by following these guidelines. Be patient. And if
you have trouble keeping track of all these things, a good professional
advisor can help you.
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