We believe market timing is an important tool to help investors achieve the returns they need while reducing their exposure to unpleasant surprises. But that is true only for systematic market timing. Unfortunately, many investors use timing not as a discipline, as we do, but as an informal and unpredictable expression of their own emotions, primarily greed and fear.

Any student of investing has seen lists of rules or slogans. "Buy low, sell high." "Cut your losses but let your profits run." "Better safe than sorry." Sometimes all the rules get pretty confusing. Some rules sound quite sensible, until you find other rules that seem to say just the opposite. For instance, "get expert advice" is a common rule. But you'll also read or hear "make your own decisions" and "don't follow the crowd." Many investment writers and money managers will advise you to "invest for the long-term and be patient." Others will say you should "be ready to move quickly" or "timing is everything" What's a conscientious investor to do?

One really rewarding part of the investment business is working with people on their financial plans and one of the interesting challenges in this process is predicting future inflation rates. Specifically, I am often asked something like this: "How much inflation should I assume when planning for retirement?"

We work hard to identify the best assets and the best funds for long-term investors, and we publish Suggested Portfolios of recommended funds. Here's a review of two years of results for the portfolios we recommend as well as a few other possible combinations of equity funds.